僵尸世界大战

Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority_我的网站

大秦帝国之纵横

A | 　　加密货币高台跳水！　　这个周末，加密货币集体大跳水。 WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。截至发稿，艾达币、XRP、XLM大跌超12%，以太坊跌超5%，比特币跌2.40%。据CoinGlass数据统计，最近24小时，全球共有17.92万人爆仓，爆仓金额接近9亿美元。其中，超八成为多单爆仓。　　市场分析人士认为，比特币等加密货币此轮大幅跳水，主要受两重因素叠加影响：其一是前期获利盘集中回吐，形成短期抛压；其二是国际地缘政治局势依旧紧张，避险需求令风险资产承压。　　据央视新闻报道，当地时间22日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊表示，任何参与对伊朗实施经济限制的国家，都被伊朗视为敌人。　　加密货币集体跳水，17.92万人爆仓　　8月22日至23日，加密货币市场集体跳水，截至记者发稿时，24小时内，比特币价格下跌2.40%报7.66万美元，以太坊跌5.29%报2383美元。其他加密货币也纷纷跳水，艾达币大跌14.05%，XRP跌12.21%，XLM跌13.17%，BNB、Solana等跌超5%。　　根据CoinGlass数据统计，最近24小时，全球共有17.92万人爆仓，爆仓总金额为8.82亿美元。其中，多单爆仓7.53亿美元，空单爆仓1.29亿美元。最大单笔爆仓单发生在Binance-ETHUSDC，价值2243万美元。　　在此次跳水前，比特币已连续五个交易日（8月17日至21日）上涨，价格自6.3万美元一度冲高至6.93万美元，触发大量空头爆仓。　　近期加密货币市场乐观情绪回归，核心催化剂是美国财政部长贝森特于8月19日宣布将长期国债回购规模至少扩大一倍，此举压低长端收益率，提振风险偏好，迫使交易员紧急回补数十亿美元空头头寸。同日，美国总统特朗普会见加密行业领袖，进一步助长市场信心。与此同时，黄金价格触及5月以来最高，因投资者担忧债券干预可能施压美元。　　BTC Markets分析师Rachael Lucas指出，本轮上涨的真正驱动力正是国债回购扩大，但其长期逻辑并未改变，比特币的高波动性特征同样依旧鲜明。

B | 　　在全球知名付费预测平台Kalshi上，无论是真金白银的散户投机者，还是专业机构交易员，普遍押注比特币2026年将收于当前价位附近——这意味着年内余下时间或呈横盘震荡，或处于牛市阶段的高位换手期。该平台相关合约的平均结果显示，市场预期年末比特币价格约为7.5万美元。

C | 　　日前，桥水基金创始人达利欧再度就美国财政风险发出警示。他指出，美国财政部长贝森特宣布扩大长期国债回购，叠加长期美债收益率持续攀升、日本减持美债敞口等现象，或表明美国财政正逼近关键转折点。若债务问题未能及时应对，未来数年美国恐将面临更为严峻的债务危机。　　达利欧于21日在社交媒体上明确表示，美国政府财政已处于“拐点”，并警告若不立即采取行动，债务将持续膨胀，终至无法在不引发重大经济冲击的前提下加以化解。　　针对潜在财政与货币风险，达利欧建议投资者相应调整资产结构：降低债券等债务类资产配置比例，同时可将投资组合的10%至15%配置于黄金，并少量持有比特币，以增强组合面对财政与货币波动的分散能力。　　中东、俄乌局势最新动向　　国际地缘政治紧张局势，亦为本周末加密货币高位回调的诱发因素之一。　　中东局势方面，据央视新闻报道，当地时间22日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊表示，伊朗告诉世界各国，不要与美国一起对伊朗发动经济战。任何参与对伊朗实施经济限制的国家，都被伊朗视为敌人。　　雷扎伊表示，特朗普政府发动的这场经济战也是一场宣传战。虽然伊朗已经遭受美国长期制裁，但伊朗已经学会了如何绕过制裁。他表示，海上封锁议题并非一朝一夕就能解决，伊朗已经遭受美国数月的海上封锁，但仍然成功售出了石油。　　此外，他还表示，美国在霍尔木兹海峡南部航道的任何行动都将成为伊朗的打击目标，且伊方将打击美国与该地区任何反伊朗势力举行的会晤。

D | 　　针对伊朗与阿曼关于霍尔木兹海峡的谈判，雷扎伊指出，双方重要磋商之一是正在就航道和贸易过境问题进行协调，目前谈判没有任何问题。

E | 两国外长的会晤进展顺利，并且谈判仍在继续。霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗至关重要，伊朗会与阿曼达成最终协议。

F | 　　由于与伊朗的谈判停滞，美国总统特朗普19日宣布对伊朗实施“毁灭性经济行动”。特朗普威胁说，任何允许其金融机构、企业、机场或政府实体向伊朗提供任何形式支持的国家，都将面临严重的经济后果。他喊话所有美国盟友与美国一起来孤立伊朗和击败“伊朗的威胁”。美国财政部长贝森特20日警告称，美国将对伊朗实施“史无前例的经济孤立”措施。　　俄乌冲突方面，据央视新闻报道，当地时间22日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，乌克兰武装部队在过去40天里持续使用导弹和无人机对俄罗斯发动攻击，企图借此击败俄罗斯，但这“不过是一场冒险”。他称，乌军的打击并未造成任何实质性转折。　　普京还称，作为对乌军打击俄罗斯境内民用设施的回应，俄军加大了对乌克兰企业的打击，且俄方的报复性打击“更具破坏性”。　　俄罗斯国防部22日通报称，俄军当天使用远程高精度武器和无人机对乌克兰基辅地区实施集群打击，摧毁40余辆配有远程无人机发射装置的卡车。

G | 此外，俄军还对切尔诺莫尔斯克港和南方港实施了打击，目标包括乌军使用的军用物资仓库、燃料储罐、货船，以及港口基础设施。　　同一天，乌克兰武装部队总参谋部通报称，乌军当天对俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔边疆区叶伊斯克港的燃料、润滑油储罐实施打击。乌克兰总统泽连斯基通报战况称，乌军过去一天对俄罗斯境内多处目标实施远程打击，涵盖距前线约1000公里的新古比雪夫斯克炼油厂，以及萨马拉地区一处物流枢纽。（文章来源：券商中国）。